Overview
- Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics says the tariffs have done significant damage to the economy, with job growth flat outside healthcare and the key consumer inflation gauge rising to about 3% from 2.5% before the levies.
- The Supreme Court struck down tariffs issued under emergency powers, the White House shifted to the 1974 Trade Act and then Section 232 national‑security tariffs, and duties first collected under the invalid law now face court‑ordered redistribution.
- The Department of Homeland Security reports $287 billion in 2025 customs collections, a surge that eases near‑term budget math even as IEEPA‑era receipts are expected to be paid back through trade courts.
- An Iran‑linked energy shock is lifting fuel and commodity costs, and Zandi warns this could hurt growth more than the tariffs by pushing up prices for deliveries, air travel, and groceries, with Goldman Sachs flagging possible U.S. jet‑fuel shortfalls by July.
- Economists writing on the first year of the policy point to trade diversion away from the U.S., slower 2025 GDP and hiring, and higher input costs that raise consumer prices and weaken the competitiveness of U.S. producers.