Overview
- YouGov’s Looped Stratified Simulation model of 2,200 Greater Manchester adults gives Bev Craig 38% of first‑preference support and projects a 62% to 38% second‑round win over Reform UK’s Sian Astley.
- The poll models the supplementary vote system used in the contest, where only voters’ first and second choices are counted and all candidates other than the top two are eliminated after the first count.
- Green candidate Geraldine Coggins is projected third on 17%, with the Conservatives’ Phil Eckersley on 11%, Restore Britain’s Marlon West on 7%, the Lib Dems’ Richard Kilpatrick on 3%, and an independent on under 1%, meaning their second preferences will decide the final total.
- YouGov finds strong local approval for Andy Burnham’s mayoralty, with 66% saying he did a good job and 44% saying he was right to step down and return to Westminster, a factor pollsters say may shape voters’ choices in this race.
- If the projection holds, the result would keep Labour in control of the Greater Manchester combined authority and provide an early gauge of public reaction to Burnham’s elevation to national leadership and policy priorities for the city‑region.