Overview
- The latest YouGov poll of 2,500 adults in Wales (conducted Nov 28–Dec 10) shows Senedd voting intention at Plaid Cymru 33%, Reform UK 30%, Labour 10%, Conservatives 10%, Greens 9% and Liberal Democrats 6%.
- Modelling by Cardiff University for the expanded Senedd projects Plaid on 39 seats to Reform’s 34, with Labour on 10, Conservatives 6, Greens 4 and Liberal Democrats 3, which would put Rhun ap Iorwerth on course to lead if repeated in May.
- Analysts Dr Jac Larner and James Griffiths say voters are consolidating within long-standing national-identity coalitions rather than switching left to right.
- Reform UK responded by casting the contest as a head‑to‑head with Plaid and attacking Plaid’s policy platform.
- A separate YouGov Westminster poll for Cardiff University (n=1,954) finds Reform UK on 30%, Plaid on 19%, Labour on 15%, Greens on 14% and Conservatives on 13%, highlighting fragmented centre‑left support under first‑past‑the‑post.