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YouGov Poll Points to Widespread Tactical Voting to Block Reform UK

The new head‑to‑head scenarios suggest seat forecasts that excluded tactical switching overstate Reform’s prospects.

Overview

  • Majorities of Liberal Democrat and Green supporters say they would back Labour to stop Reform in their seat, at 57% and 58% respectively, according to YouGov.
  • Up to 77% of Labour voters would lend their votes to the Lib Dems or Greens where those parties are best placed to beat Reform, with 30% willing to back the Conservatives in a Conservative‑versus‑Reform contest.
  • In every straight fight tested by YouGov, voters’ tactical choices prevented Reform from winning, with overall head‑to‑head preferences showing Labour over Reform by 35% to 31% and Conservatives over Reform by 31% to 24%.
  • A London subset from the national poll (weighted n=507 of 4,194) indicates strong tactical behaviour, including Conservatives leading Reform 34% to 17% in a two‑way race and the Lib Dems on 49% in a Lib Dem‑versus‑Reform scenario.
  • The findings challenge MRP seat projections that did not model tactical voting, although the results are based on hypothetical matchups and carry sampling and interpretation caveats.