Overview
- ITV Cymru Wales’ YouGov MRP, released Tuesday, estimates Plaid on 43 seats with 33% of the vote, Reform on 30 seats with 27%, Labour on 12 seats with 13%, Greens on 10 seats with 12%, Conservatives on 1 seat with 7%, and Liberal Democrats on 0 with 5%.
- First Minister Eluned Morgan is forecast to lose Ceredigion Penfro, with the model indicating Labour would fail to elect any members in four of the 16 new multi‑member constituencies.
- Wales votes under a new system on May 7 that expands the Senedd to 96 members across 16 constituencies electing six members each, which boosts proportionality and helps smaller or surging parties like Reform UK and the Greens convert votes into seats.
- Parties moved to shape the narrative, with Plaid saying it is on track to govern, Reform declaring a two‑horse race and publishing a full Senedd candidate slate, and Labour figures insisting they are fighting for every vote as campaign activity intensifies.
- The MRP used responses from 2,978 Welsh adults (2,199 with voting intention) gathered March 9–18, and Cardiff University analysts cautioned that the Plaid–Reform gap has narrowed and that late campaigning could still shift outcomes.