Overview
- YouGov’s multilevel seat model, published Saturday, projects the SNP winning about 67 of 129 seats at the 7 May election, giving John Swinney a strong chance of an outright majority.
- The model estimates 41% of constituency votes and 32% on the regional list for the SNP, with 89% of simulations producing a majority, even as support sits below the party’s 2021 levels.
- Opposition support is splintered, with Reform UK forecast in second on roughly 20 MSPs, Labour down to about 15, the Conservatives near seven, the Lib Dems around nine, and the Greens near 11, which could lift the pro‑independence total to about 78 seats.
- Following Sunday’s first TV debate, leaders clashed over the NHS and energy costs, an audience pressed Swinney on long waits and a shelved public energy plan, and Green co‑leader Ross Greer branded Reform’s Malcolm Offord a chancer.
- Hours after the debate, UK Health Secretary Wes Streeting said there would be no second referendum, prompting SNP and Green pushback while polling expert John Curtice said an SNP majority would strengthen the party’s case but warned tactical voting and Scotland’s mixed electoral system could still shift outcomes.