Overview
- YouGov’s new MRP model for ITV Wales, published Wednesday, puts Reform on 37 Senedd seats, Plaid on 36, Labour on 12 with 13 percent of the vote, and the Greens on seven.
- The model finds Plaid, Labour and the Greens holding a working majority in 96 percent of simulations, which makes a Plaid-led government more feasible than one led by Reform.
- Those findings come from MRP models that use large samples and local demographics to estimate seats, with the new proportional system turning small vote shifts into big seat swings.
- In Scotland, a More in Common MRP projects the SNP as largest on about 56 seats with Reform at 22 and Labour at 17, which could let unionist parties combine for a majority.
- A separate YouGov model of London councils projects Greens leading vote share in Hackney, Lambeth, Lewisham and Waltham Forest and Reform leading in Barking and Dagenham, Bromley and Havering, signaling broad insurgent gains and volatile outcomes.