Overview
- Following Wednesday's YouGov MRP poll, Labour is projected to place first in 15 of 32 boroughs, six fewer than in 2022 and potentially its weakest London showing since the early 1980s.
- The model shows the Greens could top the vote in four long-held Labour areas — Hackney, Lambeth, Lewisham and Waltham Forest — while Reform UK could lead in Bromley, Havering and Barking and Dagenham.
- Across the capital, projected vote shares are Labour 26%, Greens 22%, Conservatives 17%, Liberal Democrats 15% and Reform UK 14%, based on interviews with more than 4,500 London adults from March 27 to April 21.
- YouGov stresses many contests are on a knife-edge, with local flashpoints like council tax rises, housing plans, ULEZ and the Gaza debate driving shifts and raising the odds of councils with no overall control, including in places such as Haringey.
- Sadiq Khan says he will work with any Green- or Reform-led councils that emerge, while a Reform by-election gain in Salford this week has added to the party’s momentum ahead of London’s May 7 vote.