Overview
- The yen was trading around 161–162 per US dollar on Monday with traders on edge over the prospect of fresh, targeted interventions by Tokyo.
- Goldman Sachs this week pushed its forecasts weaker to 162 in three months, 163 in six months and 165 within a year, signaling growing market conviction the yen will keep falling.
- Tokyo spent roughly ¥11.7 trillion intervening in April and May but those operations failed to stop the slide, prompting officials to shift talk toward less‑telegraphed, tactical measures.
- Speculative net short positions on the yen have surged to about 146,000 contracts and the 10‑year JGB yield has hit multi‑decade highs, while import costs have helped push bankruptcies higher in the first half of the year.
- A sharp reversal would force wide unwinds of carry trades and could spill into global bond, equity and crypto markets, so investors are watching Fed minutes and any surprise BoJ signals closely.