Overview
- The paper estimates Tesla missed 1.0–1.26 million U.S. sales from October 2022 to April 2025, with monthly sales by early 2025 about 150% higher in a counterfactual without the effect.
- Researchers attribute the shortfall to Elon Musk’s partisan actions after acquiring Twitter/X, reversing earlier strength for Tesla in Democratic-leaning areas.
- Competitors’ electric and hybrid models gained roughly 17%–22% in sales as buyers substituted away from Tesla.
- Using county-level monthly registrations from March 2020 through April 2025, the study employs a difference-in-differences design that treats the October 2022 acquisition of Twitter as the shock.
- Polls cited show Democratic unfavorable views of Musk surged, and the paper says the effect likely hindered California’s progress toward its 2026 zero-emissions targets.