Overview
- Price remains range‑bound in a broader downtrend, with the $1.40–$1.45 bull‑flag retest viewed as pivotal and a break above the ~$1.65 trendline needed to confirm recovery toward $1.70–$1.72.
- Derivatives positioning is split across venues, with Binance showing the largest open‑interest 30‑day increase (about +188.7 million XRP) as several other exchanges contract.
- On‑chain data highlights sustained whale‑led withdrawals, led by Binance, including a Feb. 6 single‑day outflow of roughly 530 million XRP and recent daily averages near 50 million.
- Upbit has recorded record‑rate XRP outflows since December 2025 and the 90‑day whale‑flow average has turned positive, signaling a shift toward accumulation by large holders.
- Macro pressures from the Fed’s March 18 rate hold and renewed geopolitical tensions have cooled risk appetite, with U.S. XRP spot ETFs reporting no new net inflows midweek as traders wait for a breakout or breakdown.