Overview
- XRP has recovered to roughly $1.13–$1.15 in early July following a late‑June low, with spot XRP ETFs recording nine straight weeks of net inflows and the latest add of about $17.2 million.
- Exchange tradable supply is sharply lower, with Binance reserves down about 20% since late 2024 and a Binance Scarcity Index near 0.77, which reduces available coins and makes price moves more sensitive to large flows.
- Technically the market is fragile: a symmetrical triangle is closing and analysts warn the weekly 20‑EMA could cross under the 200‑week SMA near $1.20, a change that would strengthen the bearish case unless price reclaims that zone.
- Derivatives and order‑flow evidence show the rebound was helped by short covering from deeply negative funding rates in late June and by spot buying rather than heavy leverage, while on‑ledger activity remains below recent baselines.
- Policy developments are now less certain after the CLARITY Act missed a July 4 target, so traders are watching whether a hold of $1.10 support, a decisive close above $1.20, or renewed ETF inflows will confirm a durable recovery.