XP and Kalshi Partner to Offer CFTC-Regulated Prediction Markets to Brazilian Investors

Overview

• XP announced in New York on March 9 a distribution deal with Kalshi to list binary event contracts tied to Brazilian economic and political outcomes.
• Initial access will be limited to Clear customers who hold international investment accounts, with contracts routed through XP’s U.S. brokerage.
• Kalshi operates under U.S. CFTC regulation, and this marks its first strategic brokerage partnership outside the United States.
• Brazil has no specific framework for prediction markets, and regulated betting operators asked in February for Kalshi to be blocked for lacking local authorization.
• The Finance Ministry confirmed it is tracking the sector and holding preliminary discussions, as domestic players like B3 explore related derivatives under CVM oversight.