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Xi Invokes ‘Thucydides Trap’ in Trump Summit, Urges Cooperation to Avert U.S.–China War

The reference frames the rivalry as a test that calls for careful diplomacy.

Overview

  • At a dinner during his summit with Donald Trump, Xi Jinping cited the ‘Thucydides Trap’ and urged the United States and China to choose partnership over rivalry.
  • Thucydides Trap refers to the risk that a rising power and an established hegemon slide into war, a framing popularized by scholar Graham Allison.
  • Trump answered suggestions of American decline by saying any slump did not start under his two years in office but under previous administrations.
  • Analysts pointed to a Harvard study that found 12 of 16 past great‑power transitions ended in war, highlighting the danger without sustained talks and guardrails.
  • Peruvian columnists tied the summit’s signals to local stakes, noting a CEO‑heavy U.S. delegation as a business‑first message and warning that Peru’s political rifts could scare off investment as big‑power competition shapes the outlook.