Overview
- NOAA confirmed an X8.1/X8.3 flare from sunspot AR4366 at 23:57 UTC on Feb. 1, followed by X2.8 and X1.6 events on Feb. 2 and dozens of M-class flares over roughly 24–36 hours.
- R3-level radio blackouts disrupted shortwave communications over eastern Australia and New Zealand after the largest flare.
- Coronagraph imagery and early NOAA modeling indicate associated CMEs are largely not Earth-directed, with a possible glancing arrival around Feb. 5 and considerable uncertainty remaining.
- Space-weather monitors report quiet geomagnetic conditions so far (Kp near 0–2), with forecasts noting a brief chance of S1-level proton enhancements and elevated electron flux.
- AR4366 has a rapidly growing beta-gamma-delta magnetic structure, and forecasters say more M-class flares are likely with additional X-class events possible as the region turns into a more geoeffective position.