Overview
- The WTO’s Jean‑Marie Paugam warned that the war-driven shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz is choking a route that carries about one‑third of global fertilisers.
- He said a blockage that lasts several months would bite as planting begins, with a three‑month stop likely to have a significant impact on supplies.
- India faces an acute squeeze, with Gulf ammonia imports at a standstill and monthly urea output down about 800,000 tonnes from a normal 2.6 million.
- Market trackers report a roughly 33% contraction in seaborne fertiliser flows and sharp price gains, with urea near $720 a tonne by mid‑March and West Asian ammonia up about 24%.
- Plant shutdowns and shipping risks are adding strain, including a halt at Qatar’s QAFCO urea complex and war‑risk insurance rising from about 0.25% to 10% of a ship’s value.