Overview
- Baseline projections put global merchandise trade growth at 1.9% in 2026 after 4.6% in 2025, with commercial services growth easing to 4.8%.
- In the high energy-price scenario, the WTO sees goods trade at 1.4% and services at 4.1% for 2026, with global GDP reduced by about 0.3 percentage points from a 2.8% baseline.
- Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has collapsed from roughly 138 commercial vessels per day to near zero, threatening oil and LNG flows and pushing up costs, with Brent trading above $112 per barrel on Thursday.
- The WTO warns of fertilizer supply risks as about one‑third of global exports transit the Gulf; India sources around 40% of its urea from the region, while Thailand and Brazil depend on the Gulf for about 70% and 35% of urea imports, respectively.
- WTO economists say AI‑related goods were a major driver of 2025 trade growth and could partly cushion 2026, though net fuel‑importing regions such as Asia and Europe face the sharpest downside risks.