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World on Alert as El Niño Surges Toward Potential Record Peak This Winter

Forecasters say the unprecedented Pacific heat could briefly push global temperatures near 2°C above pre‑industrial, raising the odds of extreme heat, drought and flooding into early 2027.

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Drone view shows a farmer riding a tractor at a rice paddy field, as the government urged farmers to immediately replant their plots, responding to the erratic forces of weather for a possible prolonged dry spell linked to El Nino, in Cirebon regency, West Java province, Indonesia, June 3, 2026. REUTERS/Willy Kurniawan/File Photo
Adult and immature blue-footed boobies (Sula nebouxii) rest on rocks near the entrance to the Panama Canal as seabirds native to the cold, nutrient-rich waters off Peru and Chile appear outside their usual range while El Nino warms the eastern Pacific and disrupts marine food supplies, off the coast of Panama City, Panama, August 5, 2026. REUTERS/Enea Lebrun
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Overview

  • Major forecast centres now place very high odds that a very strong El Niño will form and likely peak in November–December 2026 with effects persisting into early 2027.
  • Recent ocean data show sea surface temperatures and especially subsurface heat in the central and eastern tropical Pacific exceeding levels seen in the 1982–83, 1997–98 and 2015–16 events.
  • That stored subsurface heat can surface quickly and could briefly lift global average temperatures close to 2°C above pre‑industrial, which would raise the chance of more extreme weather worldwide.
  • Tropical crops and soft commodities such as cocoa, coffee and sugar are especially exposed to yield losses and price swings, and economic studies link major El Niños to multi‑year, trillion‑dollar losses.
  • Scientists stress that El Niño shifts the odds rather than dictating local weather so authorities and businesses are being urged to step up preparedness on water, food supplies and supply‑chain resilience.