Overview
- On Thursday, June 11, the World Bank lowered its 2026 global growth forecast to 2.5% and warned growth could slump to 1.3% if energy disruptions deepen and financial stress spreads.
- The bank cited U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran and effective blockages of the Strait of Hormuz that have pushed Brent crude and fertilizer prices sharply higher and lifted global inflation.
- Germany faces the risk of a technical recession after DIW Berlin halved its 2026 growth outlook and said higher oil and gas costs are eroding household spending and lifting inflation above the ECB target.
- The World Bank is making roughly $50–60 billion available immediately, with the option to scale support to about $80–100 billion over 15 months to help vulnerable and fuel‑importing countries.
- Emerging and low‑income economies are the hardest hit, with two‑thirds of countries downgraded and risks of wider food insecurity, higher debt costs, and a prolonged ‘lost decade’ for many developing nations.