Overview
- A New York Times review published this week documented an “extraordinary swing” among white voters without college degrees who once backed Trump’s economy and now register net disapproval in multiple polls.
- Recent national surveys show subgroup approval for Trump on the economy ranging roughly from the mid-30s to high-40s percent, with specific polls reporting 33%, 39%, 40%, 43% and 47% for that demographic.
- A new NBC News poll released Sunday finds Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot 49% to 44% and records Trump’s approval at a recent low among registered voters, increasing the risk Republicans could lose House and Senate seats.
- Pollsters and focus groups attribute the swing to higher gas and grocery prices, tariffs and the Iran war, with voters describing real household strain and growing disillusionment that accelerated after the war began.
- The Trump campaign and allied groups have started a targeted response, rolling out a Treasury report and MAGA Inc. statements that stress last year’s tax cuts as a bid to shore up working- and middle-class support.