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Wood Mackenzie Warns Lithium Shortages Could Start by 2028

The consultancy says EV‑led battery demand will outstrip current supply plans unless $100–$276 billion builds new mining, refining and regional supply capacity.

Overview

  • Under Wood Mackenzie’s Net Zero pathway, supply deficits begin in 2028 and persist through mid‑century, with the Country Pledges case slipping into deficit around 2029 and a Delayed Transition not until about 2037.
  • Lithium demand in 2050 ranges from 5.6 million to 13.2 million tonnes LCE depending on the transition path, with the upper bound tied to a faster clean‑energy push.
  • Electric vehicles drive 72–80% of consumption across scenarios, while rechargeable batteries reach 96–98% of total lithium use by mid‑century as grid storage expands 6–7% annually.
  • Meeting demand requires $104–$276 billion in new capacity, with investment peaking between 2030 and 2034 to build mines, refineries and regional supply chains.
  • Recycling grows 13–16% per year but delivers meaningful volumes mainly in the 2040s, supplying 2.3–2.7 million tonnes LCE by 2050 and not resolving near‑term shortfalls that could pressure automakers.