Overview
- Global sea-surface temperatures have surged to levels that match recent records, according to Climate Reanalyzer data cited by multiple research groups.
- Scientists report a different pattern than in 2023, with the North Pacific and waters off California and Mexico running especially hot while the North Atlantic looks less unusual.
- The World Meteorological Organization says conditions could align for an El Niño to form from mid-2026, and some experts caution it could become a strong event.
- Researchers say a warmer climate loads the dice for stronger El Niño impacts, which can mean heavier rain in some regions, deeper drought in others, and higher odds of extreme heat.
- Fire risk could climb in places like Australia, Canada, the United States, and the Amazon if a strong El Niño develops, while long-term warming persists because the oceans absorb about 90% of excess heat.