Overview
- Late May WMO modelling shows 2026–2030 average temperatures are likely at or near record levels, with an 86% chance that at least one year will exceed 2024 and a 91% chance of a temporary single‑year exceedance of 1.5°C above pre‑industrial levels.
- Natural variability from an expected El Niño in 2026–2027 is forecast to boost short‑term global temperatures and makes 2027 a possible candidate to surpass 2024 as the hottest year.
- The German Weather Service issues a seasonal outlook giving about a 62% probability of more days above 30°C in Germany for June–August 2026 and notes that soils remain overall drier than normal with some regional hotspots of extreme dryness.
- Spring ocean data from Climate Reanalyzer show unusually warm sea surface temperatures that have already exceeded several 2024 seasonal highs, increasing the chance of marine heat records while WMO projects the Arctic will warm faster than the global average over the next five northern winter halves.
- Agencies stress these are probabilistic signals not exact forecasts, and the likely near‑term rise in heat raises clear risks to public health, agriculture, water supplies and coastal ecosystems that warrant preparation and monitoring.