Overview
- The WMO’s latest bulletin says the recent weak La Niña is giving way to neutral conditions likely to persist through June.
- For March–May, the WMO estimates a 60% chance of neutral conditions, 30% for La Niña, and 10% for El Niño.
- For May–July, the outlook shifts to about 60% neutral and around 40% for El Niño, which the WMO says could strengthen later in the year.
- NOAA’s independent outlook puts the probability of El Niño developing in July–September at roughly 50% to 60%.
- Officials emphasize ENSO unfolds on a warmer human‑influenced baseline, noting the 2023–24 El Niño ranked among the five strongest, seasonal forecasts guide planning across sectors, and global temperatures are expected to run above average this spring.