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2mo ago

WMO Sees Rising El Niño Odds After July, Flags Risk to India’s Monsoon

Forecasters caution that spring predictability limits confidence.

An unusually high tide, called a King Tide, floods a highway on-ramp in Northern California in January 2023. Sea level rise and El Niños can exacerbate this type of flooding. Credit: California King Tides Project
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Overview

  • Latest WMO update says the recent weak La Niña is fading toward ENSO‑neutral through spring, with a potential shift to El Niño later in 2026.
  • WMO Global Producing Centres put neutral conditions at about 60% for March–May and 70% for April–June, with El Niño odds rising to roughly 40% in May–July.
  • IMD and several models favor El Niño development after July, raising the chance of subdued rainfall if warming overlaps India’s July–August monsoon peak.
  • WMO guidance indicates a widespread signal for above‑average land‑surface temperatures during March to May.
  • The boreal spring predictability barrier reduces near‑term forecast skill, and WMO urges close monitoring to inform agriculture, water, energy, health and disaster planning.