Overview
- Following a relatively weak La Niña, the WMO projects neutral Pacific conditions in the near term, with about a 60 percent chance from March to May and 70 percent from April to June.
- In the May–July window, the WMO outlook holds neutral conditions near 60 percent while lifting the probability of El Niño to 40 percent.
- The WMO says a new El Niño could emerge before the end of 2026 and will be monitored carefully in the coming months.
- WMO Director Celeste Saulo underscores that reliable forecasts and early preparations can avert multi‑million‑euro losses and save lives.
- El Niño typically boosts global temperatures and shifts rainfall patterns, and the strong 2023–2024 event helped make 2024 the hottest year on record, with characteristic dryness in Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa and northern Brazil and heavier rains in the Horn of Africa, the southern U.S., Peru and Ecuador.