Overview
- - The UN’s World Meteorological Organization says ocean and model signals indicate a high chance El Niño will form between May and July with potential strengthening later in 2026.
- - Mexico’s national weather service assigns a 61% probability for El Niño in May–July and forecasts 18 to 21 named Pacific storms with a high risk of heatwaves and rapid hurricane intensification.
- - Peru’s ENFEN confirms sustained warming off its northern coast since February, keeps an El Niño Costero alert, and expects possible intensification to moderate strength from May to June.
- - Peruvian agencies caution against declaring a “very strong” or “Super Niño” and warn that a global setup could trim spring rains in parts of the southern Andes, threatening planting and local food security.
- - Scientists emphasize the spring predictability barrier and ongoing monitoring through May, with several outlooks allowing coastal impacts and some El Niño conditions to persist into early 2027.