WMO Sees El Niño Likely to Begin in May After Rapid Pacific Warming

Overview

• The UN weather agency said conditions are likely to develop starting in May after rapid surface warming in the equatorial Pacific.
• Climate models now align on an onset with further strengthening in the following months, said WMO forecaster Wilfran Moufouma Okia.
• The final strength remains uncertain due to a spring predictability barrier, with a fuller update due at the end of May.
• Typical shifts include wetter weather in southern South America and the southern United States and drier conditions in Australia, Indonesia, and parts of southern Asia.
• WMO projects above-average land temperatures from May to July in much of the world, with the strongest signal in Central America, the Caribbean, the southern United States and Mexico, Europe, and northern Africa.