Overview
- The World Meteorological Organization issued an unequivocal update on Thursday saying El Niño is firmly established, with forecasts putting the chance it will persist through February 2027 at nearly 100 percent.
- Ocean measurements show exceptional heat feeding the event, with the Niño 3.4 index around +2.2°C to +2.6°C above normal and subsurface pockets more than 8°C warmer than average, which forecasters say supports further strengthening toward a very strong or 'super' peak by late 2026.
- Early impacts are already visible: droughts and crop losses in parts of Central and South America, widespread wildfires and hazardous haze in Indonesia, and water-stress limits on Panama Canal transits that reduce shipping capacity.
- Governments and humanitarian agencies have launched large preparedness actions, including national advisories for households, strengthened early-warning systems and sectoral planning for agriculture, water, health and energy.
- Seasonal outlooks point to sharp regional contrasts this winter, such as wetter conditions in parts of the southern and eastern U.S. and milder, lower-snow conditions for many lowland areas in Europe, and scientists warn a warmer baseline climate could amplify impacts and lift the odds of a record-warm 2027.