Overview
- The World Meteorological Organization now places about an 80% chance that El Niño will develop between June and August 2026 and more than a 90% chance it will persist through at least November.
- Ocean observations show unusually large subsurface heat in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and recent westerly wind bursts that have primed the system for surface warming.
- Most forecast models project a moderate-to-strong event but a minority of runs allow a very strong or 'super' El Niño, with final peak strength uncertain because of spring forecasting limits and atmospheric feedbacks.
- Officials warn the event would raise the odds of heatwaves and higher global temperatures, cut rainfall in places such as Australia and parts of South Asia with risks to India’s southwest monsoon, and bring heavier rains or floods in parts of South America and the southern United States.
- Researchers note that human-driven warming will magnify impacts from any El Niño and that some studies suggest ENSO extremes and distant teleconnections could strengthen in future decades though models disagree on that long-term trend.