Overview
- The World Meteorological Organization said Tuesday that there is about an 80% chance El Niño will form between June and August and roughly a 90% chance it will persist through at least November.
- Recent observations show sea‑surface temperatures on the Pacific coast of South America reached El Niño levels in late April–mid May and unusually warm subsurface water was measured up to about 6°C above long‑term averages.
- Models and the WMO describe the event as likely to be at least moderate and possibly strong, with seasonal impacts peaking November–February and regionally driven outcomes such as floods in parts of South America and droughts and fires in Southeast Asia, Australia and parts of Africa.
- WMO and UN officials have urged governments and humanitarian agencies to expand seasonal forecasts, early‑warning systems and contingency plans for agriculture, health, water and energy to reduce harm to people and livelihoods.
- The WMO estimates an 86% chance that one of 2026–2030 will be warmer than 2024, with a possible temperature peak in 2027, and experts warn poor harvests tied to El Niño could push up prices for commodities such as sugar, coffee and cocoa.