Overview
- In early June the World Meteorological Organization placed roughly an 80% chance that El Niño will form in June–August and more than a 90% chance it will persist through at least November.
- Satellite and ocean observations from agencies including NASA and Sentinel‑6 show large warm Kelvin waves crossing the tropical Pacific, higher coastal sea levels off South America, and unusually warm subsurface pools that typically precede El Niño.
- Most forecast ensembles now point to a moderate‑to‑strong event but some model runs still allow for a very strong or so‑called 'super' El Niño, and scientists note peak strength remains uncertain because of the spring predictability barrier.
- UN leaders and climate experts warn that an El Niño superimposed on human‑driven warming would likely push near‑term global temperatures higher and amplify regional heatwaves, droughts, floods and risks to agriculture and water supplies.
- Agencies are urging governments and sectors to activate early warnings and preparedness plans, citing past strong El Niños that caused widespread ecological and economic damage and studies linking stronger events to large losses.