Overview
- The World Meteorological Organization said Thursday there is a nearly 100% likelihood that El Niño will persist through February 2027 and that the event is intensifying toward a very strong or supersized peak later this year.
- Key ocean indicators show the Niño 3.4 index climbing into roughly +2.2°C to +2.6°C above normal and large subsurface temperature anomalies in parts of the tropical Pacific exceeding +8°C, giving the event abundant physical fuel to strengthen further.
- Observable impacts are already occurring, including severe drought in parts of Central America, widespread wildfires and hazardous haze in Indonesia, and operational water‑conservation restrictions at the Panama Canal that limit ship transits.
- The WMO and United Nations have launched an unprecedented global mobilisation with national meteorological services and humanitarian partners to bolster seasonal forecasts, early warnings and preparedness, and some national officials are urging households and sectors to store supplies and plan for disruptions.
- Forecasters warn effects will be uneven by region because a developing positive Indian Ocean Dipole and a warm tropical Atlantic can modify outcomes, with likely second‑order impacts on food, water, energy and shipping that could drive humanitarian needs into 2027.