Overview
- The World Meteorological Organization, which issued a seasonal update Friday, says climate models now strongly agree on El Niño developing in the May–July window.
- Observations show sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific rising quickly and heat building below the surface, which are classic precursors to an El Niño.
- Typical shifts tied to El Niño include higher odds of drought in Australia and parts of southern Asia, weaker monsoon rains in India, and wetter conditions in southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa, and central Asia.
- Researchers expect more tropical cyclones in the central and eastern Pacific and stronger high-altitude winds that can disrupt Atlantic hurricanes, though the impact depends on timing and Atlantic water temperatures.
- Several models point to a strong event and NOAA puts the chance of a very strong outcome near 25%, yet forecasts face the spring predictability barrier, with agencies planning late‑May updates and advising early planning for farming, water supplies, energy, and health as land temperatures are forecast to run above normal almost everywhere in May–July.