Overview
- The World Meteorological Organization, which issued an update on Tuesday, put the odds of El Niño at about 80% for June–August and near or above 90% by November.
- Observations show an unusually large reservoir of warm subsurface water in the tropical Pacific, with anomalies above 6°C in places that are surfacing and driving sustained sea-surface warming.
- Global forecast models agree the event will be at least moderate but disagree on peak strength, so the maximum warming remains uncertain because model runs diverge and spring predictability limits accuracy.
- The WMO and the UN warned the developing El Niño could amplify heatwaves, droughts and heavy rainfall, heighten coastal high tides and strain agriculture, health, water and power systems.
- Local outlooks already differ: some commercial forecasters expect only slightly above-normal summer heat for parts of the U.S. Northeast while Australian farmers and the Bureau of Meteorology are preparing for drier, hotter conditions and higher fire risk.