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Overview
- The UN weather agency reports a sharp warming of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, a classic El Niño signal.
- Model outlooks point to an onset between May and July 2026 with a possible strong episode as confidence increases after April.
- Seasonal forecasts show above-normal land temperatures in most places for May to July, with especially strong odds in southern North America, Central America and the Caribbean, Europe, and North Africa.
- Rainfall projections show pronounced regional swings, which means some places may see wetter conditions while others turn drier.
- The WMO will issue its next Info‑Niño/Niña bulletin at the end of May to guide planning for June to August and later.