Overview
- The World Meteorological Organization issued an update on Thursday saying forecasts show an almost 100% chance that El Niño will persist through February 2027 and will likely intensify into a very strong event.
- Ocean data show exceptional heat in the tropical Pacific with the Niño 3.4 index about +2.2°C–2.6°C above normal and subsurface anomalies in some areas more than 8°C above average, providing sustained energy for further strengthening.
- The WMO and United Nations have launched an unprecedented mobilisation to strengthen forecasts and early warnings for sectors at risk, including agriculture, water, health, energy, and shipping.
- Concrete impacts are already being reported: drought and crop losses in Central America, severe wildfires and hazardous haze in Indonesia, and water-conservation limits at the Panama Canal that are restricting transits.
- Forecasts point to above-normal land temperatures for September–November 2026 and a developing positive Indian Ocean Dipole plus a warm tropical Atlantic, which could change regional outcomes and leave local impacts uneven and uncertain.