Overview
- A multi‑model update from the World Meteorological Organization and the Met Office projects 2026–2030 global annual temperatures will average about 1.3–1.9°C above 1850–1900 and gives an 86% probability that one of those years will be hotter than 2024.
- The report finds a 91% probability that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will temporarily exceed 1.5°C above preindustrial levels, a threshold that was already crossed in 2024 at roughly 1.55°C.
- Forecasters expect El Niño to develop at the end of 2026, a Pacific ocean‑atmosphere event that typically boosts global surface temperatures and makes 2027 the most likely candidate to set a new annual record.
- The WMO warns the Arctic will warm far faster than the global average, with projected winter anomalies near 2.8°C above 1991–2020 and further sea‑ice loss especially in the Barents, Bering and Okhotsk seas.
- The update also projects shifts in rainfall — wetter winters at high northern latitudes and drier subtropics, plus summer wetting in parts of northern Europe, Alaska, Siberia and the Sahel and drier Amazon summers — which could heighten risks to agriculture, water supplies and vulnerable communities.