Overview
- The World Meteorological Organization said Tuesday there is about an 80% chance El Niño will form between June and August and roughly a 90% chance the pattern will continue into November.
- Observed ocean data from late April into May show sea-surface temperatures near El Niño thresholds and subsurface Pacific waters more than 6°C above average, creating a large heat reservoir that favors sustained warming.
- Most forecast models now point to at least a moderate El Niño and some runs indicate a strong event, but the WMO warned the peak strength remains uncertain because of known springtime predictability limits.
- Seasonal outlooks favor above-normal global temperatures for June–August with regionally varied rainfall shifts, including reduced monsoon rains in South Asia, drier conditions in Central America and parts of Australia, and wetter conditions in parts of the southern United States; Pacific hurricane activity may rise while Atlantic activity is likely to be suppressed.
- The UN, national agencies and forecasters urged early action for climate-sensitive sectors to limit harm to agriculture, water, energy and health systems, and local forecasters note persistent drought in places such as Philadelphia even as some commercial services expect only modest summer heat there.