WMO Forecasts Strong El Niño From July to September 2026

Overview

• The World Meteorological Organization said on July 3 that El Niño is rapidly intensifying and is likely to reach 'strong' intensity (level 3 of 4) between July and September 2026.
• Climate models now show a high chance the event will persist into early 2027 with the possibility of very strong sea surface temperature anomalies above +2°C, which would amplify global heat and drought risks.
• Brazilian forecasters have adopted an operational posture for the near term with the Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia issuing alerts for heavy weekend rains in the North and Northeast and a full-state warning for all 167 municipalities of Rio Grande do Norte.
• Short-lived weather systems are producing opposite conditions in the South and Southeast, where a cold front and polar air mass have driven temperature drops and localized frost even as El Niño raises seasonal warming and fire risk elsewhere.
• State and local authorities are strengthening preparedness measures, notably in Rio de Janeiro where officials activated a specialized civil defense force and the fire department launched Operação Extinctus 2026 to protect water supplies, energy infrastructure and vulnerable communities.