Overview
- The World Meteorological Organization published a multi-model forecast on Thursday that gives an 86 percent probability one year between 2026 and 2030 will exceed the 2024 global temperature record.
- The WMO report synthesizes projections from 13 institutions and projects near-surface global temperatures averaging between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above pre-industrial levels in the coming years.
- The forecast assigns a 75 percent chance that the five-year period 2026–2030 will average above 1.5°C, though the Paris target is considered formally exceeded only if a 20-year average surpasses that level.
- WMO and EU Copernicus data show Europe is warming about twice as fast as the global average, a pattern already linked to early 2026 heatwaves that are stressing health systems and power grids in parts of Western Europe.
- If an El Niño develops late in 2026 as predicted, short-term heat and extreme-weather risks could rise, increasing demand for heat warnings, water management and emergency planning in vulnerable regions.