Overview
- The World Meteorological Organization and the UK Met Office published a five‑year forecast in late May 2026 that projects global annual temperatures from 2026 to 2030 will range about 1.3°C to 1.9°C above 1850–1900.
- The update assigns roughly a 91% probability that at least one year in 2026–2030 will temporarily exceed 1.5°C and about a 75% chance that the full five‑year mean will exceed 1.5°C above pre‑industrial levels.
- The report gives about an 86% chance that one year in 2026–2030 will be hotter than 2024 and notes an expected El Niño by late 2026, which would raise the odds that 2027 could set a new record.
- The Arctic is projected to warm far faster than the global average, with winter anomalies near +2.8°C versus the 1991–2020 baseline and a higher risk of March sea‑ice loss in seas such as Barents, Bering and Okhotsk.
- Current heat episodes in Western Europe and local high‑temperature advisories illustrate near‑term impacts, and the forecast cautions that temporary one‑year breaches do not alone break the Paris 1.5°C goal but repeated breaches make meeting it less likely.