Overview
- The World Meteorological Organization published the multi‑model forecast on Thursday projecting 2026–2030 mean global temperatures 1.3°C–1.9°C above 1850–1900.
- The report gives about an 86% probability that at least one year in 2026–2030 will exceed 2024 as the warmest on record and about a 75% chance the five‑year mean will top 1.5°C.
- Lead author Leon Hermanson and the models expect an El Niño to develop by late 2026, which the forecast says will increase the likelihood that 2027 becomes a new record‑hot year.
- The forecast projects Arctic winters roughly 2.8°C warmer than the historical average with further sea‑ice loss and signals regionally higher winter precipitation in parts of the north and drier conditions for the Amazon.
- Scientists and UN officials say the outlook underlines that continued fossil‑fuel burning and deforestation are driving the trend and call for faster emissions cuts even as the WMO cautions that a single hot year does not by itself decide long‑term Paris Agreement outcomes.