Overview
- The WMO and NOAA say fast-warming equatorial Pacific waters make El Niño conditions likely between May and July, based on recent ocean and atmosphere readings.
- Peru’s ENFEN reports a weak Niño Costero that could strengthen to moderate levels and persist to January 2027, with the country’s north coast identified as the main risk zone.
- Multiple climate models, including NOAA and ECMWF-linked outlooks, project a shift to a warm ENSO phase that intensifies from autumn 2026, though the peak strength and exact timing remain uncertain.
- Regional projections highlight heavy rains and flooding on the coasts of Peru and Ecuador, with a high chance of severe drought in the dry corridor of Colombia and Bolivia as Pacific waters warm.
- Health and economic risks are rising, as WHO warns prolonged heat drives excess illness and deaths, and analysts expect pressure on crops, energy systems, insurance, and global commodity prices.