Overview
- On Friday, July 3, 2026, the World Meteorological Organization said El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and are likely to strengthen rapidly into a strong event between July and September.
- Multiple leading climate centres' model ensembles show consistent warming across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific with seasonal sea‑surface temperature anomalies expected to exceed about 2°C in key monitoring regions.
- National agencies including Earth Sciences New Zealand, NOAA and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology have declared El Niño active and say New Zealand will likely face a drier, windier spring in the north and east while parts of the south and west may be wetter than normal.
- The WMO has mobilised UN agencies and stepped‑up early‑warning support for climate‑sensitive sectors such as agriculture, health and water, and officials are urging farmers to prepare water plans, supplementary feed strategies and wildfire measures.
- Scientists warn that model spread and seasonal predictability limits mean the exact peak strength and local fingerprints remain uncertain and that past strong El Niños have produced very different regional outcomes, so impacts will vary by place and timing.