Overview
- The World Meteorological Organization said on Friday that El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and that models show rapid strengthening into a strong event during July–September.
- Global forecast ensembles show consistent warming in the Niño 3.4 region with the latest weekly anomaly near 1.7°C and NOAA estimating a roughly 63% chance of exceeding 2°C in key monitoring areas.
- Forecasters warn the pattern will raise the odds of heatwaves and marine heatwaves, worsen drought in parts of India, Australia and the Horn of Africa, and bring heavier rain to some Pacific and western US regions.
- The WMO and national services including ESNZ, IMD and NOAA are stepping up climate information services and coordinating with UN and humanitarian partners to expand early warnings for agriculture, health, water and infrastructure.
- Experts stress confidence that El Niño will persist but caution that peak strength and exact local impacts remain uncertain and will be monitored through late 2026 into early 2027.