Overview
- White House staff received a March 24 email that barred using nonpublic information to place prediction‑market bets or financial trades and warned that violations can be criminal, according to CBS News and officials.
- Blockchain analyses reported by the Associated Press found at least 50 newly created Polymarket wallets that bet on a U.S.–Iran cease-fire minutes before President Trump’s announcement Tuesday and booked large profits.
- Exchange data cited by Bloomberg show contracts covering at least six million barrels of oil traded in about two minutes starting at 6:49 a.m. on March 23, shortly before Trump posted that strikes on Iran would pause.
- The White House said there is no evidence officials profited, while lawmakers pressed for action, with Sen. Richard Blumenthal seeking answers from Polymarket and bipartisan bills proposing new limits on war‑related event markets.
- Public blockchain records cannot identify who controls the wallets, and platforms say they are tightening insider‑trading guardrails as the CFTC and federal prosecutors review the activity, which could lead to tougher rules for users and officials.