Overview
- A White House official confirmed late Tuesday that Gabriel Perez no longer works for the federal government after he was placed on unpaid administrative leave earlier this month.
- Kalshi’s surveillance team flagged trades tied to more than a dozen Trump speeches, froze most reported profits and referred the activity to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission for investigation.
- Perez has acknowledged making some of the trades and has cooperated with regulators while Manhattan federal prosecutors reportedly declined to open a criminal case.
- The CFTC’s continuing civil inquiry has included reported settlement talks that would require Perez to return winnings and bar him from placing similar bets on event contracts.
- The episode highlights how prediction markets work — users wager on specific event outcomes or words in speeches — and has pushed the White House and lawmakers to consider stronger limits and screening to prevent employees using nonpublic information for private gain.