Overview
- Kevin Warsh will be sworn in Friday at the White House, following a 54–45 Senate confirmation on May 13 and the Fed board’s May 15 move naming Jerome Powell chair pro tempore until the ceremony.
- Traders have sharply cut expectations for easing, with CME FedWatch showing about a 99% chance of no change through June and more than 94% through July, while one data snapshot put the odds of a 2026 hike near 55% and a cut near 0.5%.
- Central bankers abroad are seeking clarity after Warsh said the Fed’s independence in setting rates may not fully extend to crisis tools like dollar swap lines that keep funding flowing during market stress.
- Powell will remain on the Board of Governors through early 2028, and Warsh’s first policy meeting is June 16–17, which includes new economic forecasts that will signal his stance on rates and the balance sheet.
- The White House venue breaks recent practice of swearing in Fed chiefs at the central bank, and the last White House ceremony was for Alan Greenspan in 1987, drawing fresh scrutiny of the Fed’s distance from politics.