Overview
- The White House verified an internal March email telling staff not to use nonpublic information for trading or prediction bets.
- Oil futures worth more than $760 million changed hands within two minutes shortly before President Trump's pause on strikes against Iran, Dow Jones data reported by the Wall Street Journal show.
- Reuters reported roughly $950 million in wagers on falling oil prices just before a U.S.–Iran ceasefire, executed in large blocks rather than spread across venues.
- On Polymarket, a crypto prediction site that allows anonymous payouts, three accounts won more than $600,000 by correctly timing an Iranian ceasefire.
- Reporters say there is no direct proof of leaks, and House Democrats are preparing investigations as the CFTC asserts control over event markets, several states sue the platforms, and Donald Trump Jr.'s ties to Polymarket and Kalshi draw scrutiny.